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December 2002 / January 2003

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Indian economy to grow by 5%

The Indian economy is still expected to grow between 5.0 and 5.5 percent in the year to March despite a weakening of momentum in the first half due to a poor monsoon and tensions with Pakistan the government said recently.

"The late arrival of the monsoon, combined with deficient or scanty rain, weakened the growth momentum in the second quarter," the government's mid-term economic review said.

"High international oil prices, uncertainty about recovery of world growth and trade, and a tense situation on the western border with Pakistan, combined with imponderables arising from the situation in the Gulf and elsewhere compounded the weakness."

However, it added growth projections for the current financial year remain unchanged at 5.0 to 5.5 percent.

The review also warned that any worsening of the situation in the Middle East, with the possibility of a US-led war against Iraq, could further hamper growth.

Pakistan's economy growth on target

Pakistan's economy is on track to meet the government's latest growth target, Finance Minsiter Shaukat Aziz said recently as he released a slew of data showing the economy was gaining momentum.

"The trends are heading in the right direction, giving us confidence that we will meet GDP growth of 4.6 percent this year," Aziz told a gathering at the launch of an online stock trading company. Gross domestic product (GDP) was 3.6 percent in the previous year fiscal year that ended June 30.

Better performances in Pakistan's manufacturing and agriculture sectors drove improvement across the economy during the first quarter of the 2002-2003 fiscal year, Aziz said.

Industrial production during the first quarter that ended September 30 grew by 5.2 percent year-on-year, while bicycle, motorcycle and car production was up 29.3, 28.8 and 25.6 percent respectively.

Bangladeshi export earnings jump by 7.5%

Bangladesh's export earnings increased by 7.5 percent from July to September against the same period last year amid a recovering world market, officials said recently.

Bangladesh's exports, dominated by the garment industry, were worth $ 1.6 billion from July to September, the first quarter of the fiscal year, according to official figures.

Officials said exports last year were set back by a poor world economy, particularly after the September 11 attacks in the United States, a major market for Bangladeshi garments.

But the economic aftershocks of Setpember 11 on WTC are fading, while Bangladesh has increased its product volume in a drive to boost exports, said Mohammad Tajul Islam, director general of the state-rum Export Promotion Bureau.

The garment sector alone brings in 75 percent of Bangladesh's export earnings, followed by leather products, chemical products, textiles, footwear ceramics, tea and handicrafts.

Prime Minsiter Khaleda Zia's government is trying to encourage more exports, in apart to boost foreign exchange reserves that have dipped to just over one billion dollars, about half the normal level.

Pakistan facing hurdle to push reforms

A struggling coalition government in Pakistan and an opposition of hardline Islamic groups is jeopardizing the country's economic reform programme and will likely deter investors from pumping long-term capital into the country, analysts say.

With newly-elected Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali struggling to keep a shaky coalition intact, concern in Karachi's financial markets is mounting over his ability to push through reforms to strengthen the economy.

The outcome of October's election produced a divided parliament, with the emergence of a vocal opposition led by an alliance of Islamic parties that won on a fiercely anti-U.S. vote.

Although political maneuvering allowed pro-military Pakistan Muslim league's Jamali to win the Prime Minsiter's post with a slender majority, fault lines emerged emerged quickly when the powerful Muthehida Qami Movement, or MQM party, threatened to quite the coalition.

Despite these obstacles opposition groups don't' appear to want to topple Jamali because the fall would only strengthen army President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who seised power in a military coup in 1999.

Sri Lanka hopes to boost Foreign Investment

The government of Sri Lanka hopes that higher growth combined with prospects for peace in the embattled northern and eastern regions will boost direct foreign investment and donor support.

The government and the Tamil Tiger rebels are engaged in a Norwegian-brokered peace process to end the drawn out a separatist conflict that has claimed over 64,000 lives.

Despite peace negotiations, the government plans to spend marginally more on defence next year due to interest and capital payments on short-term borrowings for previous military hardware purchases. The government allocated 524 million dollars for the defence ministry for spending on the army, navy and the air force next year, compared to 50.1 billion rupees spent on defence this year.

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