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March / April 2003

WORLD



US sees 1.4% GDP growth

The U.S. economy didn't falter as badly in the final quarter of last year as first thought. A new reading showed growth at a 1.4 percent pace- still slow but twice as fast as the government previously estimated.

While economists welcomed the upward revision to gross domestic product reported by the Commerce Department. they said it didn't change the basic picture of the $10.6 trillion economy: It is listless.

In fact, many believe the economy is already doing better in the current January - march quarter with estimates of growth at a 2.5 percent pace or more.

The government first estimated that GDP in the fourth quarter of 2002 grew at an annual rate of 0.7 percent. The revised reading is based on more complete data. GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the best barometer of the economy's health.

The major factors in the upward revision were stronger investment by businesses in building up stockpiles of unsold goods and a slight boost to consumer spending.


US economy will drive global growth

The US economy, underpinned by a vast stimulus plan, will drag the global economy out of the doldrums, US Treasury Secretary John Snow said recently.

"As the world's largest economy, if we grow, if we see improvement in out own economy, that will boost the world economy," he said in a statement released after a Group of Seven meeting of finance ministers and central bankers.

A 674-billion-dollar (626-billioncuro) stimulus package palmed by US President George W. Bush's administration would be critical for building a US economic recovery on firm ground.


Australian economy to slow down

Australia's economic growth will likely slow in 2003, but will continue to expand at a "good pace." the nation's central bank said recently.

Economists said the central ban's comments, published in its quarterly statement on monetary policy, indicated that interest rates will remain steady for the foreseeable future.

The Reserve Bank of Australia noted the country's economy grew at a respectable pace in 2002 despite a weak global economy and would continue to do so in the coming calendar year.

"The Australia economy looks set to continue to grow at a good pace although slower than last year." the bank said. It did not give any growth forecasts. However the federal government has said the economy would likely grow at 3 percent in the current fiscal year that ends June 30, 2003. Australia's fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30.

The bank said a drought ravaging most of Australia's main farming regions for the past year was likely to ease in 2003. It added that should improve agricultural exports and help the Australian economy.


German economic mood brightens

A surprise boost in a key German business confidence indicator sparked hopes that the worst might be over for Europe's biggest economy, but analysts warned that further risks loomed.

The widely, watched If industrial confidence index for, western, Germany edged up in February for the second month In a row to 88.9 points, Ifo-instittite said in a statement.

The January reading had reached 87.4 points, up from 87.3 points in December, marking a turnaround after a seven-month slide.

Analysts had expected, a slight drop back down to 87.3 points in the index, a key indicator for financial markets.

The Ifo institute cut its 2003 growth forest for Germany recently to just, 0.9 percent compared with an earlier prognosis of 1.1 percent.


US proposes free trade area for Americans

The United States offered its plan for a hemispheric free-trade pact, proposing ending tariffs on all textile and apparel goods within five years of the launch of the Free Trade Area of the Americas.

The proposal was container in the US offer for the Western Hemisphere trade pact, which officials hope to crate by 2005.

The US has created a detailed road map for free trade in the Western Hemisphere-we've put all our tariffs on the table, because free trade benefits all and brings us closer together as neighbors." the US trade representative Robert Zoellick said.

The proposal would eliminate all duties on consumer and industrial products by 2015.

And 65 per cent of consumer and industrial goods tariffs would be eliminated immediately upon launch of the FTAA.

The plan, which must be accepted by the 34 nations seeking to form a free trade zone for all of North and South America by January 1, 2005, does not include any reductions in the most contentious sector, agricultural subsidies. But it does include a phased-in reduction of agriculture import tariffs.

Fifty-six percent of agriculture import tariffs would be eliminated immediately upon initiation of the FTAA, while other agricultural tariffs would be reduced in stages lasting longer than 10 years.


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